Princeton Election Consortium — Innovations in democracy since 2004

October 24th, 2020, 9:54pm by Sam Wang

Welcome, Drudge Report readers! Take a look around our site. You’ll find no probabilities – but instead, resources to help you be as powerful as possible as an individual citizen. It’s like what I told the AP reporter, whose story on getting away from probabilities is also linked from Drudge.

Tags: 2020 Election

October 24th, 2020, 1:21pm by Sam Wang

In our system, states have a measure of independence of the federal government. This is newly important because in many places, state courts have become the best route for protecting voting rights. But that’s in question, as evidenced by a 4-4 Supreme Court ruling last week.

However, this is one area where you have a lot of indirect leverage in the matter. In the November election, you may have even more influence on the survival of federalism than you do over the Presidential race. [Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · Senate · Supreme Court · U.S. Institutions

October 23rd, 2020, 8:59am by Sam Wang

We have an unexpected new Redistricting Moneyball state: Nebraska!

The Nebraska legislature will affect the redrawing of Congressional districts, which matters both for the House and also for the Presidency. How’d we figure it out, and how can you help in the final days of the campaign?

Analyzing Nebraska was harder than other states. The legislative chamber (there’s only one, called the “unicameral”) is nominally non-partisan. However, we figured out a way to make it work. [Read more →]

Tags: Redistricting

October 22nd, 2020, 11:28pm by Sam Wang

Here at Princeton, we’re experimenting with new ways to create a shared public conversation. Although if it’s not possible to gather in person, the Public Lectures Committee has arranged a new series of short videos, Princeton Talks.

The theme this fall is “The Commons.” What do we share in common, and what does it take to have a unified society? I got to give the first one. Watch it here:

Stay tuned for more episodes from my distinguished colleagues!

Tags: 2020 Election

October 21st, 2020, 10:04pm by Sam Wang

Today I was interviewed by a reporter for AP, a Mr. B. As PEC readers know, there are virtually no probabilities reported on this site for 2020. Still, he kept asking about them. Mr. B. seemed perplexed by my refusal to tell him a number, despite the fact that our scripts calculate it every day.

There’s an important reason to avoid talk of probabilities: At the Princeton Election Consortium, you’re not the product – you’re the customer. What does this mean? [Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election

October 20th, 2020, 5:06pm by Zachariah Sippy

Six Minnesota State Senate candidates have pledged to fight against gerrymandering and unfair districting if elected, the nonpartisan Princeton Gerrymandering Project announced today.

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Tags: 2020 Election · Moneyball · Redistricting

October 20th, 2020, 8:23am by Sam Wang

Wherever you are, there are so many reasons to vote. We have resources in the right sidebar. See the PEC 50-State Voter Guide. Also at other sites, see Taniel’s What’s on the Ballot? and Stephen Colbert’s Better Know A Ballot.

Today, I have a rundown of all the ways you can make a difference in redistricting fairness in nine states: Virginia, Ohio, North Carolina, Kansas, Texas, Missouri, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Connecticut. Combined, these states are expected to have a total of 106 House seats, nearly one-fourth of the chamber. And it is possible for you to help, even if you don’t live in one of those states. [Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · House · Redistricting

October 17th, 2020, 1:27pm by Sam Wang

I’ve been talking with analysts and risk managers at major financial firms. They don’t seem to be very focused on the stability of our democratic system. But they do like to talk about markets. Their outlook is strongest for single-party control of Congress, since that leads to Congressional action on covid-19 relief and economic stimulus. Further substantial lawmaking will likely require doing away with the legislative filibuster, but it is said that five Democratic Senators are against such a change. So unless some of those Senators change their minds, Democrats would need to get to at least 55 seats to do away with that rule.

Here’s a look by JP Morgan analysts at the Presidential race. After looking at undecided voters (the lowest in 50 years) and likely polling error, they conclude that a Trump win is about as likely as a double-digit win by Biden.

One question on my mind these days: how long might single-party Democratic control last? Based on upcoming races, 50-51 Senate seats gets them to 2022, but maybe not further. 52 seats or more seems likely to get them to 2024. Another question: how long will conservative dominance of the Supreme Court last? That’s both a political and a demographic question. More coming soon.

Tags: 2020 Election

October 11th, 2020, 9:53am by Sam Wang

A recent (October 6-9) ABC/Washington Post poll (see story) captures a disconnect between Election Day and pre-Election Day voting. [Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President

October 10th, 2020, 7:05pm by Sam Wang

A Classic Rock Twofer Tuesday PlaylistWith three weeks to go in the campaign, fundraising is heating up. That’s even true for state legislatures, which will shape the political playing field for 10 years through redistricting.

Today I will give four examples of how one donation can do the work of two. [Read more →]

Tags: 2020 Election · President · Redistricting · Senate

The Green Agenda IS the Great Reset

The Green Agenda IS the Great Reset

The green agenda IS the Great Reset. One of the few political leaders who gets this is President Donald Trump. On Sunday he warned in a video statement from the White House to the Group of 20 summit hosted by Saudi Arabia that the Paris Climate Agreement was ‘not...

Bloomberg Backs Former Miami Mayor to Head Florida Democrats

Bloomberg Backs Former Miami Mayor to Head Florida Democrats

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg has expressed his backing for former Miami Mayor Manny Diaz to lead the foundering Florida Democratic Party, Politico reported on Tuesday. It‘s a job many others are not interested in, after President Donald Trump trounced the Democrats...