The head of the International Monetary Fund says the global economy is at a “delicate moment” with a hoped-for rebound in growth later this year being threatened by a variety of factors from such as rising trade tensions.

IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde says the IMF does not expect a recession in its updated forecast to be released next week as long as policy missteps are avoided. She said one encouraging development was the move by the Federal Reserve to put interest rates on hold this year.

Lagarde says that “nobody wins a trade war.” She said new IMF research shows that an increase in tariffs of 25 percentage points on all goods traded between the United States and China would reduce U.S. growth by 0.6 percentage points.

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